Tagged: BVP DFS MLB
March 25, 2016 at 2:39 pm #4631
Most adults no longer believe in the Easter Bunny or Santa. So why do seemingly smart people think that Batter vs Pitcher is any more real? The general idea behind BVP is that a batter may have better odds of hitting specific pitchers. Which is total bullshit. What batters have are tendencies to perform better against certain types of pitchers. A batter’s splits over the largest sample size available will always tell the best story. In “The Book” Tango totally dispels the myth as well…..buy it and read it if you want to understand baseball.
The core issue with BVP is sample size. Taking 20 instances to support an argument is illogical. Maybe, just maybe….the perception that any batter “owns” a particular pitcher is more related to the core tendencies of each rather than the actual individuals. A hitter that hits .350 against a lefty is probably going to “own” a shit lefty like Locke. This has nothing to do with BVP and everything to do with a good hitter owning a shit pitcher.
Next time you find yourself wasting your time arguing with the BVP crowd. Look at a hitter’s lifetime splits…I bet they correlate strongly to the said BVP miracle. Luck also plays a major role as well….most know that BIP finding gaps etc also skew numbers so a few lucky shots over a 10 AB sample can really inflate numbers…yet another reason you should always look at career numbers.
Just scratching the surface here. I’ll add to this thread a few times when I get a chance. Also the idea of “clutch” is also bullshit. Cheers!
March 25, 2016 at 3:07 pm #4632
I’m not even convinced that some hitters aren’t better against certain pitchers, we just don’t have the data to predict them. Letting our opinions be swayed by 20 or 30 at-bats is never prudent.
March 25, 2016 at 3:48 pm #4633
The problem with BVP in my opinion is that you will rarely find a large enough sample size to justify your argument that it exists, but I can’t all but write it off as something that doesn’t happen.
Can a pitcher/catcher battery, with good knowledge of the batter they are facing, have an edge over that batter depending on the pitch thrown? I’m basing this on zero research, apart from watching the majority of at-bats during the MLB season (I take the All Star Break off), but it seems like knowledge of a batters pitch preference combined with a pitcher that can exploit said preference would lead to a 1v1 edge.
Not exactly BvP but at the same time, if I see a pitcher that consistently owns a batter, I’d be likely to shy away from that batter provided he’d face the pitcher more than a handful of times. Further, believing that a psychological advantage or disadvantage doesn’t exist between specific players is shaky ground to stand on.
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