In order to compete in mixed martial arts contests, we run concurrent computer models which analyze slightly different data points in an effort to fully model fight outcomes. Most scoring systems make it necessary for you to pick the winner of the fight to score any meaningful points.
This makes MMA DFS strategy different from golf or baseball, at the end of the fight there is a binary outcome, barring a draw one fighter wins while the other loses. Picking winners is important, equally important is picking fast winners. A first round KO is worth far more than a win by decision, so at the end of the day only two things matter for your DFS lineup: who won and how fast?
MMA GPP Picks
Embrace the variance by trying to identify the underdog most equipped to surprise his or her opponent in your lineups. To win a guaranteed mixed martial arts fantasy tournament, your MMA GPP picks need to shy away from the obvious favorites. The majority of your competition will focus on fighters that are “supposed” to win.
After all, how often does a -300 favorite lose? The betting market and UFC pundits all believe it will be an easy victory, so why won’t it be an easy win in daily fantasy? Very simply, the vast majority of your competition will also believe these reports, and this will lead to high ownership percentages in your tournament.
High ownership is the GPP bankroll killer, you’re risking your money to win all of the prizes, not split the purse with hundreds of others.
MMA Cash Theory
For cash games, if you cannot fit in 5 of the DFS Doctors top projections, look for a fight that is lined as close to a 50% win for both fighters and then use both of them in your lineup.
Our MMA cash theory prescribes looking for a fight that has the potential to go the full three or five rounds, that way, each fighter will have plenty of opportunity to rack up points. If the fight happens to end early, you reap the benefits of having the winner on your roster.
We only recommend using this strategy to fill two of the slots in your lineup, any more and you reduce any advantage you posses.
Daily Fantasy MMA Tips
- Check the betting market on Thursday before fighter weigh ins, and Friday after.
- You will be forced to choose one fighter not favored to win
- The high salary star of your lineup can get knocked out in 20 seconds
- With a binary scoring system, the winner scores a lot the loser not so much
- It is best to play 3-4 high variance lineups to reduce the randomness of the sport
Using these daily fantasy MMA tips, the associated strategies outlined above and our expert projections you can be sure to field a competitive lineup…