DraftKings – MLB Pitcher

The first step in producing accurate numbers for pitchers is to predict the strikeouts this pitcher is likely to accumulate. To do so, you have to figure out how many times the lineup he is facing is likely to strikeout, and then apply this to the specific pitcher. Once you have this you can build out the remaining fantasy baseball scoring metrics to produce a solid projection for each individual player.

We combine our strikeout numbers with the amount of innings we expect the pitcher to go and then add on his team’s implied probability of winning the game while deducted the runs expected to be earned against him. The result identifies weaknesses in the DraftKings MLB pricing system which are easy to exploit once you have a handle on it.

There are two options for our numbers. You can sort of expected Fantasy Points, which will result in ranking of the top pitchers that day for fantasy baseball. These will generally be higher priced and highly owned, but are a great addition to most cash game lineups. Sorting by value will uncover the DFS pitcher sleeper picks that are undervalued, low owned with high ceilings. Use one of these arms for your GPP lineup to come in under the salary.

******Given the current state of the Daily Fantasy market, which has directly affected the player pools for baseball, we can no longer post our projections as the edge we’ve all enjoyed has been reduced to the point that it is not viable for us to share this information. We sincerely hope that the law makers behind any legislation and the companies due to benefit from it can come to a mutually agreed upon solution in the quest to Make Daily Fantasy Sports Great Again. Feel free to ask any questions related to daily fantasy baseball on the Twitter machine and we’ll do our best to answer.******

MLB Pitcher Projections for DraftKings


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