The first step in producing accurate numbers for pitchers is to predict the strikeouts this pitcher is likely to accumulate. To do so, you have to figure out how many times the lineup he is facing is likely to strikeout, and then apply this to the specific pitcher. Once you have this you can build out the remaining fantasy baseball scoring metrics to produce a solid projection for each individual player.
We combine our strikeout numbers with the amount of innings we expect the pitcher to go and then add on his team’s implied probability of winning the game while deducted the runs expected to be earned against him. The result identifies weaknesses in the DraftKings MLB pricing system which are easy to exploit once you have a handle on it.
There are two options for our numbers. You can sort of expected Fantasy Points, which will result in ranking of the top pitchers that day for fantasy baseball. These will generally be higher priced and highly owned, but are a great addition to most cash game lineups. Sorting by value will uncover the DFS pitcher sleeper picks that are undervalued, low owned with high ceilings. Use one of these arms for your GPP lineup to come in under the salary.
MLB Pitcher Projections for DraftKings