For the second week in a row it looks as though weather will play a major role in the outcome of a golf tournament, as a storm front looks to be lashing the field at the 2016 RBC Heritage in Hilton Head, South Carolina.
As we saw last week, when the wind is blowing the big ball strikers will struggle to keep the ball on the fairway. Add in a heavy dose of rain and you will want to focus on adding accurate, as opposed to powerful, ball strikers to your DraftKings lineup.
Looking deeper in to the weather, you can see that scattered showers and winds gusting around 15 mph throughout the day will plague the first round on Thursday. However, golfers teeing off in the afternoon group look to be avoiding most of the rain.
With that in mind we will look to avoid having too many golfers teeing off in the first group on Thursday, and the ones that we do use, we will make sure that their driving accuracy is respectable.
Two golfers that jump out as must plays from the morning group are Kevin Kisner at $9700 and David Hearn at $6000. Kisner is ranked 7th in Drive Accuracy, with Hearn at 32. If the winds are blowing and the rain is falling, we feel safe rostering either or both of these players.
The wind expects to blow strong throughout the weekend, calming down for the final round at Harbour Town GL. Continue looking for accurate strikers, this time focusing on the afternoon tee times from Round 1. Enter Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9500, 10th in accuracy), Zac Blair ($5800, 12th in accuracy) and Jim Herman ($6500, 17th in accuracy). These three options all tee off after noon on Day 1, when the rain predicts to be nonexistent, while all being accurate off the tee.
Entering these golfers in your lineup will leave enough space for the tournament favorite, Jason Day. The betting market has Day’s odds of winning set at +600, roughly a 14% chance of being crowned RBC Heritage winner. While Day isn’t the most accurate striker, his implied probability of a win compared to the rest of the field, coupled with a late start on Day 1 and a potential low ownership resulting from a high salary ($12,500), make him an attractive option.
|Golfer||DraftKings Price||DFSDoctors Projection||“Vegas” Odds||Implied Win Probability|
|Chances this lineup produces the RBC heritage winner||23.71%|