I’ve given it thought, but have yet to actually attempt to calculate a concrete EV. My sense is it would entail something along the lines of:
1. Projecting ownership %s for all players, and from that deriving an ‘average contest lineup’
2. Use your player projections to calculate the ‘average lineup score’ for opponents from that slate
3. Compare the ‘average lineup score’ to your expected lineup score on the given slate (you’d also have to have some sense about what distribution the scoring follows for that given sport and slate)
4. Finally, obtaining what % of the time you cash given xScore and xOpponentScore (and the scoring distribution)
Obviously, from there you have P(Success) and P(Failure), as well as contest payout (at least for non-GPPs), so it’s an easy plug into the Kelly formula.
This is obviously not ideal, but for now I make a simple and conservative estimate of roughly a 2% (varies depending on sport) edge and play slates at 1/2 Kelly. Definitely interested in other ideas.