Reply To: Effective Value Calculations Using Ownership Projections

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#4642
mlbmodel
Participant

“1) With the prevalence of sites like yours, do you feel like your quantifiable edge has decreased or have you been able to leverage your other skills (game theory, lineup construction, etc.) to maintain or even increase your edge? From a theorycrafting perspective, the reason why DFS always remained nothing more than a low hanging fruit / learning exercise for me (in addition to being an old man who unless I automate real-time breaking news consumption I have no desire to put in the requisite work for point #3 that you raised) is because with static pricing and the availability of ever increasing accurate sites like yours, one would think the edge diminishes. Throw in the almost to double to sports wagering vig and I wonder how more serious DFS players such as yourself feel about your future quantifiable edge.”

I would question how quantifiable an Advantage Players’ edge ever was considering the pool sizes and vig. That is not to say it was not there it is just not as easily quantifiable as say monitoring CLV in sports betting markets. To cut to the chase, yes, advantage has diminished with the influx of quality information.

“2) Just to make sure I fully understand your EMH explanation, am I correct in concluding that the sharper the pricing gets on a site, the greater the edge for the DFS pro vs average user and, conversely, the softer the pricing is (cough DK), the more variance you will run across which actually decreases your edge. Are these statements correct?”

The theory would argue that if all pricing is perfect then there is no edge on the market. In other words simply solving for implied value would produce the optimal lineup. In which case the market is perfect and no one has an advantage. In this environment game theory as described above would yield the only edge and yes advantage players would benefit most. Softer pricing and for that matter softer lineup building rules leave a novice player a much better chance of lucking into success. Also with sites finding the weak salaries these variations are easily spotted.

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