Reply To: Effective Value Calculations Using Ownership Projections

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@mlbmodel – Thanks for the very thoughtful reply, it is much appreciated.

I could not agree more with your assessment of the tools needed to be an AP in the present DFS landscape and that without those things an early DFS APer will do poorly now. I had two follow ups if that’s ok –

1) With the prevalence of sites like yours, do you feel like your quantifiable edge has decreased or have you been able to leverage your other skills (game theory, lineup construction, etc.) to maintain or even increase your edge? From a theorycrafting perspective, the reason why DFS always remained nothing more than a low hanging fruit / learning exercise for me (in addition to being an old man who unless I automate real-time breaking news consumption I have no desire to put in the requisite work for point #3 that you raised) is because with static pricing and the availability of ever increasing accurate sites like yours, one would think the edge diminishes. Throw in the almost to double to sports wagering vig and I wonder how more serious DFS players such as yourself feel about your future quantifiable edge.

2) Just to make sure I fully understand your EMH explanation, am I correct in concluding that the sharper the pricing gets on a site, the greater the edge for the DFS pro vs average user and, conversely, the softer the pricing is (cough DK), the more variance you will run across which actually decreases your edge. Are these statements correct?

Feel free not to spend too much time on replying to these questions – I really posted the first time to help with #content, but you raised some key pieces of information so now I’m interested.

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