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I think that projecting ownership is just as important as projecting the potential statistical outcome for a given player on a given day, and becomes more so as the player pool increases. I would agree, most if not all value calculations (ours included) are a Point Projection over Cost analysis.
To find the true value of a player, it’s a logical step to include ownership projections, but how to arrive at these is a question of debate. First and foremost, as I’m sure you’ve found, finding concrete ownership data for all players in a given tournament is next to impossible without parsing the data yourself. Further, parsing that data requires a decent to above average excel skill set along with a decent to above average computer. DraftKings certainly doesn’t do any favors to those looking to investigate if any trends exist for Week to Week ownership, which makes it a pain to determine what factors might drive said ownership.
We’ve found that to determine ownership for a specific GPP, we have to download the entire results the next day. From there you have to clean up the data so that you can sort and eventually determine what % of lineups own each player. Slate wide numbers are ?impossible? to determine, as in order to get the results CSV you have to have first entered the tournament. Even if you could get all results, the coding alone is enough to keep all but the elite away from accessing this info.
To answer your question, you’re on the right track.
To further it, I would surmise that the same trends and ideas which influence sports betting decisions also drive the players which end up in an average lineup on a given day.
Has this player seen recent success?
Is their team an overwhelming favorite?
Does “Vegas Say” that the game will be high scoring?
What do the pundits and talking heads say?
Which players are being trumpeted by ESPN?
Has this player moved from a reserve to a starting role? Has this move been recent (on game day) or within the last week, ie, are contest entrants aware of the switch?
Obviously this just scratches the surface, but I do hypothesize that were you to go back through ownership levels of the past year, regardless of sport/season, you could easily line them up with the same trends that influence public betting money.
*Thanks for the forum name tip*