Batter v Pitcher Stats

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This topic contains 2 replies, has 3 voices, and was last updated by  NecessaryPaper 3 years, 5 months ago.

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  • #4877


    Hello… a “new-ish” DFS player on the bases I have found BvP stats quite helpful, especially in finding value plays. I have noticed that Rob seems not to be a big fan. Do others not use those much? If not, how come and what other stats are your go-to for filling out a lineup?


  • #4878

    In general, the issue with BvP is sample size.
    Batters simply don’t have enough ABs against opposing pitchers to draw any meaningful conclusions.

    For example, yesterday, the Phillies hosted the Nationals.
    Jayson Werth has a career OPS of 1.089 against Charlie Morton, with 2 HR in 14 AB.
    Werth has performed very well against Morton in his career, but there is other data, drawn over a larger sample size, that is much more meaningful.

    In 253 AB against RHP in 2015, Werth had an OPS of .658 and wOBA of .293.
    He had an OPS of .771 and wOBA of .325 against LHP in 78 AB.
    Now, granted, the 78 AB against LHP is a small sample size, but these numbers are very much in line with his career splits.

    Look at Charlie Morton, he has drastic splits:
    .376 career wOBA against LHB compared to .295 career wOBA against RHB.
    These career numbers are very much in line with his numbers last season, and thus far, early in the year.

    Based on BvP, you’d look at a guy like Werth and think that he has a solid matchup, when in reality, that couldn’t be further from the truth.
    What is the point of using a dozen ABs when there is so much more information accessible? I’ve only hit on a few data points, but there’s much more to look at than that as well.

  • #4879


    The sample size needed to stabilize is essentially too large to ever really be seen in MLB. Strange things can happen in small sample sizes, as described in the song below:


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